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5-13-2020 COVID-19 Update from the MN Department of Health

8:48 AM | Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Minnesota Department of Health COVID-19 Update 5-13-2020

COVID-19 Update


Read the MN COVID-19 Update for 5-12-2020 from the Minnesota Department of Health Here


On Wednesday, May 13, the Minnesota Department of Health held a WebEx briefing to present members of the media with the latest version of modeling that is used to inform public health and state policy decisions in response to COVID-19. 

This is the summary of that presentation on the Minnesota COVID-19 Modeling 3.0

State Health Economist Stefan Gildemeister:

  • COVID-19 Modeling
  • Version 1: March 2020
    • Based on early data available at the time
  • Version 2: April 2020
    • Included more specifics about Minnesota cases, factors
  • Version 3: May 2020
    • Integrates new details and capabilities
  • Ongoing model updates panned with available capacity
  • The U of M and MDH created the MN COVID-19 model as a tool to inform response strategies and resources planning
  • Updated model documentation is available online, including:
    • references for parameter values
    • underlying data
    • Model equations governing transitions of the population through COVID-19 health states
  • COVID-19 remains in early stages and new evidence is emerging
  • Ongoing model updates are needed to:
    • reflect the growing understanding of COVID-19 transmission and outcomes 
    • Incorporate new emerging data from the US and MN
    • Refine projections by fitting model MN data on observed mortality and hospitalization data
    • Add new model capabilities to illustrate potential mitigation strategies
  • Epidemic and evidence still very new 
  • Extent and impact of key metrics uncertain
  • Evolving clinical protocols with halting dissemination of evidence 
  • U.S. case data are limited and incomplete, affecting availability of robust estimates 
  • Limited U.S. Data
    • first studies with U.S. patients in late March and April
      • 4,226 cases in U.S. study: outcomes (illness and death) were unknown for 2,001
      • 5,700 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in NYC area: discharge or death status was only known for 46%
      • Among hospitalized in MN COVID-19 patients: nearly 32% remain in the hospital
  • 1) Structural changes to address
    • Asymptomatic infections
    • Deaths occurring outside of hospital
  • 2) Restricted ICU metric to ventilated cases
  • 3) Updated parameter estimates using newly available U.S. Data 
  • 4) Incorporated new calibrated parameters, including:
    • Proportion of 70-plus year olds dying in non-hospital settings
    • Reduction in contacts under social distancing and under stay-at-home order
  • 5) Fitted model to Minnesota deaths and hospitalizations through April 25

  • What?
    • Less time to peak epidemic
    • Some upward movement in estimates for:
      • ICU demand
      • Full-epidemic mortality
  • Why?
    • Calibration to rising MN deaths
    • Mitigation less effective than assumed for: 
      • initial physical distancing (38%, not 50%)
      • Stay at home order (59.5% not 80%)
    • Changes to ICU mortality assumptions and data 

Model Changes: “Stay at Home Order in Place for 6 Weeks”

Unmitigated and Extended Stay at Home Orders:

Extended Stay at Home Orders and Testing:

Extended Stay at Home Order, CDC Guidelines for “Opening Up” and Medical Advancement

Daily Deaths — All Scenarios

Consideration for Next Steps

  • More and better data from U.S. epidemic
  • Refined Scenarios
    • Treatment: evidence on home treatment
    • Testing: Incorporate impact of contact tracing
  • Enhancements: cycling mitigation

Additional notes from the presentation:

  • For a look at all of the slides from the MDH presentation, you can go to: https://mn.gov/covid19/assets/MNmodel_PPT%205.13.20_FINAL%20915AM_tcm1148-431824.pdf
  • For a technical document that explains the model in more detail, you can go to: https://mn.gov/covid19/assets/MNmodel_TechnicalDoc_5.13.20_tcm1148-431812.pdf
  • “We hope these are pessimistic estimates, but it’s certainly a plausible outcome,” said Stefan Gildemeister, state health economist.
  • 1,441 deaths through May under scenario 5, scenario 6 – 1,388 deaths (currently at 638 deaths in MN as of 5/13).
  • Deaths would fall if testing ramps up (goal 20,000 tests per day)
  • Reopening businesses – would reduce peak, but spread a higher number of cases over longer time
  • Models will continue to be revamped to indicate better testing and contact tracing.
  • “Just buying time without using it will not dramatically change of the disease,” said Gildemeister, referring to testing and other options to improve mortality totals and cases
  • Better treatment options and contact tracing and better care situation will help save more lives.
  • Deaths haven’t reached more than 30 per day.
  • When asked whether the model will quickly go out-of-date, Commissioner Jan Malcolm said, “The model is never really going to be able to be refined enough to pick up all of those effects about intervention.” 
Delane Cleveland, reporting

Brooklyn Center | Brooklyn Park | Crystal | Golden Valley | Maple Grove | New Hope | Osseo | Plymouth | Robbinsdale

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